The chance that each fantasy regular suffers an injury that costs them the following game, if they take the field in their next game. Scored by the calibrated injury engine from snap counts, injury reports and injury history.
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Not scored: these players are on a reserve list and cannot play the next game.
Injury risk is conditional on playing: the probability of an injury in the next game that makes the player miss the game after it. The league average for fantasy regulars is about 5% a game. Plays next game is a separate estimate from the latest practice report and injury listing. Games missed is the season-long simulation of injuries and absences through week 18.
Risk factors show how much each known factor multiplies the player's risk (×2.0 doubles it), found by resetting that factor to a neutral value. Workload compares the last three games' snaps to the player's usual share.
Tested season by season on 2019–2025: the model gets the overall injury rate right (4.8% predicted vs 5.0% observed) but ranks players only modestly (AUC 0.61). Most injuries are not predictable from public data, so treat differences of a point or two as noise and the High tier as the real signal.